Net Zero Transition Research

Autofracture Research develops open, systems-oriented net-zero transition analysis focused on accelerated net-zero, fossil phaseout, clean-energy delivery, and biosphere restoration.

The current research program, Net Zero ASAP Project, asks what would have to be true for global operational net zero to become physically and institutionally plausible before mid-century, including what must be decided during the 2026–2030 window to keep the fastest pathways available.

Research outputs

Net Zero ASAP Project | Net Zero ASAP Project One Pager | Net Zero ASAP Project Substack

2030s Net Zero Playbook | ClimateSOS | ClimateSOS Foundational Charter

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Possible Climate Futures

Methods

These images are climate stripes overlays, bounded by data generated from MAGICC (6.8) via pymagicc using a newer version of my CDRMEx code, with HadCRUT5 extended to 2025, except for current policies. The current policies trajectory is an extrapolation from Climate Action Tracker's estimate of 2.6°C by 2100. One of my to-do items is to get the code for these images back to GitHub. The color bar on the right is calibrated to the same temperatures as the stripes. Each stripe represents one year. The baseline for 0°C is the mean temperature of 1850 through to 1900, to which all series are normalized. The colorbar and stripes are calibrated so that 0°C of warming is white. AI assistance was used only for code drafting.

For both the Net Zero CDR10, shown and bounded by the teal, and Anthropocene 2125, bounded by the bright green, these pathways specify nearly 10GtCO₂ and 37GtCO₂ yearly in negative emissions. With current technology rates, negative emissions are expected to come from a portfolio of solutions and to conform to rigorous MRV, as well as the rights safeguards and guardrails in the ClimateSOS Foundational Charter, which also underly the safeguards for the Net Zero ASAP Project. 

The future has not been decided yet. We do have tremendous possibilities to create a much better future.

Collaboration and review

Seeking feedback from finance, grid, adequacy, fossil retirement, industrial decarbonization, AI/data-center energy, adaptation, and climate justice experts.